A study of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) shows that the total world merchandise exports to China in 2020 may reach only 33.1 billion USD, down to 46% (equivalent to 46%). 15.5 billion USD) compared to the annual growth forecast before the COVID-19 pandemic.
The new UNCTAD study worries economies that rely on exports of key commodities such as energy products, ores and grains. According to UNCTAD data, about two thirds of developing countries are dependent on exports.
For commodity-dependent developing countries, especially some of the most vulnerable, the expected reduction of $ 2.9 to $ 7.9 billion will result in a 9% decrease in losses. about the annual growth rate. As China consumes about one fifth of global exports, such a reduction in imports will have a strong impact on key commodity producers.
China’s demand for products such as energy, ore and grain plummeted. Imports of liquefied natural gas could be reduced by up to 10% by 2020 from an expected 10% increase before the outbreak of COVID-19.
The UNCTAD study says iron imports are expected to increase, but the growth rate may fall by two-thirds, from an annual growth forecast of 19% to COVID-19 to 6%. Wheat imports are now forecast to fall by 25%, double the level before the COVID-19 crisis.
However, the UNCTAD study identified positive results for some agricultural products compared to expectations before COVID-19. For example, China’s soybean imports from developing countries depend on commodities, which are expected to increase by 34% (up 10 percentage points from the previous forecast).
According to To Uyen
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